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A year that lives or dies in the fourth quarter, plus safety rules and licensing.
Toys have the most extreme seasonality of any category. A very large share of the year happens in about eight weeks, which means the buying decision made in summer determines the whole year. Get it wrong in July and there is no way to fix it in December.
That concentration creates a nasty cash problem. You pay for Christmas stock in the autumn, when you are still living off a quiet summer. The money goes out at the worst possible moment and comes back all at once, or does not.
Leftovers are punishing. A licensed character that was everywhere last year can be worthless this year. Unlike a plain wooden toy, licensed and trend led stock has a shelf life measured in months, and January clearance is where the margin goes to die.
34 categories, each with its own page.
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